RetroLift / Tools / Monte Carlo forecast
Free Monte Carlo forecast for agile delivery
Stop guessing delivery dates. Bring your finished-work history, and the simulation runs 10,000 possible futures to give you a range you can defend. Free, with no sign-up.
Open Monte Carlo forecast free →
When to use it
- A stakeholder asks when a set of items will be done
- You need to know how many items fit before a date
- Story point estimates have stopped predicting anything
What it does
- Upload or paste a CSV with start and done dates (Jira exports work)
- Or type finished items per day or week
- "When will N items be done?" and "How many by this date?"
- Your data never leaves the browser
How to use it
- Bring your history. Upload or paste a CSV export with start and done dates (Jira works), try the sample, or type finished items per day or week.
- Check the columns. Make sure the start and done columns are matched and dates read correctly (switch day-first if needed).
- Pick the history window. Use a recent period that looks like how the team works now, e.g. the last 90 days.
- Ask your question. “When will these N items be done?” or “How many items by this date?”
- Share a range, not a date. Quote the 85% answer for commitments and the 50% answer as the coin flip.
Tips
- More history gives steadier answers, but only if the team and the way of working haven’t changed.
- Split large items before forecasting: the simulation counts items, not their size.
- Your data never leaves this browser.
Open Monte Carlo forecast free →
Frequently asked questions
What does the 85% answer mean?
In 85% of the simulated futures, the work finished by that date. Quote it for commitments, and treat the 50% answer as a coin flip.
Do I need story points?
No. The simulation counts finished items. Split large items first, because it does not look at their size.
More free tools
Tools →
Also from RetroLift: Retrospective templates · Team games · Icebreaker questions